Long-term impact of HPV vaccination and COVID-19 pandemic on oropharyngeal cancer incidence and burden among men in the USA: a modeling study

A new study by scientists from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the University of Texas, and partners found that in the USA almost 1 million cases of oropharyngeal cancer in men could be prevented by 2100 if 80% of adolescents in the USA were adequately vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) by 2025. The study was published in the journal The Lancet Regional Health-Americas.

Only 54% of adolescents and 21% of young adults in the USA were adequately vaccinated against HPV as of 2019. This level of vaccination coverage will prevent some cases of oropharyngeal cancer in men, but the researchers estimated that an additional 150 000 cases could be avoided by increasing the coverage to 80%, leading to elimination of this cancer type in the USA by the late 2070s. If current vaccination rates continue, elimination of oropharyngeal cancer is not expected to occur by the end of this century.

Oropharyngeal cancer in men is reported to be the most common cancer caused by HPV infection in the USA. In many countries, particularly low- and middle-income countries, cervical cancer is the most common cancer caused by HPV infection. IARC estimates that in 2020 there were almost 80 000 new cases of oropharyngeal cancer in men and more than 600 000 new cases of cervical cancer worldwide. Adequate rates of vaccination against HPV globally could prevent a significant fraction of the future burden of cancer.

Damgacioglu H, Sonawane K, Chhatwal J, Lairson DR, Clifford GM, Giuliano AR, et al.
Long-term impact of HPV vaccination and COVID-19 pandemic on oropharyngeal cancer incidence and burden among men in the USA: a modeling study
Lancet Reg Health Am, Published online 15 December 2021;
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2021.100143

Read the article