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A new study by scientists at the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) projects the future burden of gastric cancer, including that attributable to Helicobacter pylori infection – the primary cause of gastric cancer – among a cohort of individuals born in 2008–2017. The expected number of gastric cancer cases, in the absence of intervention, was quantified across 185 countries by combining national age-specific incidence rates from GLOBOCAN 2022 and cohort-specific mortality rates from United Nations demographic projections. The article was published in Nature Medicine.
Worldwide, assuming no change to the current gastric cancer control measures, 15.6 million gastric cancer cases are expected to occur within these birth cohorts, of which 76% are attributable to H. pylori infection and are therefore potentially preventable. Asia accounted for two thirds of the expected cases, followed by the Americas and Africa. Whereas 58% of future cases were projected in regions with historically high gastric cancer incidence, 42% were expected in lower-incidence regions, driven largely by demographic changes. In particular, a significant increase in the burden of gastric cancer is projected in sub-Saharan Africa, where the future number of cases will be up to 6 times those estimated for 2022.
Gastric cancer is a disease with high morbidity and poor prognosis, although it is largely preventable. Most gastric cancers are attributable to chronic infection with H. pylori, and this burden worldwide is one of the highest of any cancer-causing infection. Despite ongoing global initiatives aimed at eliminating cervical cancer and viral hepatitis, gastric cancer remains relatively neglected, with limited interest and investment in many parts of the world, leading to public health inaction.
This study highlights the growing burden of gastric cancer with shifting global profiles. The projections offer policy-makers critical information for cancer control planning at both regional and national levels and underscore the urgent need for the implementation of prevention strategies to reduce the global burden of gastric cancer.
Park JY, Georges D, Alberts CJ, Bray F, Clifford G, Baussano I
Global lifetime estimates of expected and preventable gastric cancers across 185 countries
Nat Med. Published online 7 July 2025;
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-025-03793-6
