Donate now
EN FR
18 October 2021
Cervical cancer Infections

Predicting cohort-specific cervical cancer incidence from population-based HPV prevalence surveys: a worldwide study

Scientists from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) have developed the PANDORA model to predict age-specific incidence of cervical cancer in populations with known age-specific prevalence of infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) types, average age at sexual debut, and status of implementation of cervical cancer screening. The study was published in The American Journal of Epidemiology.

PANDORA characterizes the relationship between age-specific prevalence of HR-HPV infection and incidence of cervical cancer in female birth cohorts as a function of the time lag between the assessment of HR-HPV prevalence and cancer incidence. The model can predict cervical cancer incidence in HR-HPV-positive women up to 14 years after the detection of HR-HPV types. Using PANDORA, the researchers were able to accurately reproduce cervical cancer incidence in HR-HPV-positive women as observed in multiple countries. The model was also used to predict the annual number of cervical cancer cases and cervical cancer incidence in locations with HPV prevalence data but no cancer registry.

These findings could inform cervical cancer control programmes in settings without cancer registries, because PANDORA can be used to predict the future burden of cervical cancer based on easy-to-implement population-based surveys of HPV prevalence.

Schulte-Frohlinde R, Georges D, Clifford GM, Baussano I.
Predicting cohort-specific cervical cancer incidence from population-based HPV prevalence surveys: a worldwide study
Am J Epidemiol, Published online 15 October 2021;
https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwab254

Read the article

Publication status

Published in section: IARC News

Publication date: 18 October, 2021, 0:40

Direct link: https://www.iarc.who.int/news-events/predicting-cohort-specific-cervical-cancer-incidence-from-population-based-hpv-prevalence-surveys-a-worldwide-study/

© Copyright International Agency on Research for Cancer 2024

Other news